SMCCDI Note: Iranians oppose any change or agreement that would affect the Caspian Sea's division and borders, other than those stipulated in treaty and convention ratified between 1921 and 1975 between the former Soviet Union and the then's Iran's Imperial regime.
Such agreements have shared the Caspian Sea on a 50/50 basis between Iran and the then Soviet Union.
Any new distribution should ONLY affect the 50% share which was allocated to the former Soviet Union and its then components which have become, today, independent. This principle should be as simple to understand, than as any contract which would have been made between, a recently, divorced couple and any third party during their common life.
The third party should not pay for the consequences of divorce happened between the couple.
Any deal on any change made between any component of the Islamic regime and any of the Caspian Sea's bordering countries is NULL and VOID.
President Vladimir Putin will seek to strengthen Russian control over Europe's energy supplies when he meets in Iran with the other leaders of the five states around the Caspian Sea, which together hold almost half the world's natural gas and a fifth of its oil.
Putin, the first Kremlin leader to visit Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution, will also hold separate talks tomorrow with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad amid efforts by the U.S. and its allies to force Iran to end its nuclear program. Putin today confirmed he will travel to Tehran, a day after he was warned of a plan to assassinate him there.
Russia, supplier of a quarter of Europe's gas, still monopolizes export pipelines out of Central Asia, leading former Soviet states Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to consider alternative routes to world markets. Iran, meanwhile, is redoubling efforts to become a new source of gas for Europe. Putin is pursuing agreements with these countries to give Russia more control over the global gas market.
``Putin is afraid his plan for control over Central Asian energy is falling apart,'' said Mikhail Korchemkin, director of the East European Gas Analysis consultancy. ``Putin wants to get access to Iran's tap before it's even opened. His whole idea is eliminating competition from other oil and gas producers.''
Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have been at odds over how to divide the Caspian since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Iran advocates splitting the landlocked body of water into five equal parts, while the other countries want sectors corresponding to their coastlines, which would cut Iran's share to less than 15 percent.
Refining Hub
Iran, under pressure for its nuclear program, is seeking to become a refining hub for Central Asian oil and gas by expanding existing export routes. The Islamic Republic, which holds the world's largest gas reserves after Russia, is also trying to plug into a planned pipeline linking Turkey to central Europe.
There's no legal precedent for dividing the Caspian, said Gareth Winrow, a professor of international relations at Istanbul Bilgi University. ``That's what makes this question so open and fluid,'' Winrow said. ``The law is being used as a screen to hide various political and economic goals.''
The U.S. is pushing a plan to build an underwater pipeline linking Turkmenistan, on the eastern shore of the Caspian, with Azerbaijan in the west. The link would bypass Russia and give Europe access to Turkmenistan, the second-largest gas producer in the former Soviet Union.
Kazakhstan, holder of 3 percent of the world's oil and the biggest field discovered since the 1970s, plans to double oil production by 2015. The country, which exports most of its oil through Russian pipelines, is pursuing alternate routes to China, Turkey and Georgia.
'Clock Is Ticking'
Kazakh and Turkmen leaders pledged to increase gas shipments via Russia during a meeting with Putin in May, though a September deadline for reaching a more detailed agreement was missed.
``For Russia the clock is ticking,'' said Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib Bank in Moscow. ``Russia needs to extend its energy relationship with Europe and Central Asia before Iran is rehabilitated.''
Iran is counting on Russia's continuing diplomatic support and increasing European and Asian competition for its resources to help counter growing pressure from the U.S., which is seeking tougher United Nations sanctions for what it claims is Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon.
Putin rejected the U.S. claim Oct. 11, saying during a news conference in Moscow with French President Nicolas Sarkozy that there's no firm evidence Iran is seeking to produce a bomb. Sarkozy called for tighter UN sanctions ahead of his visit.
`Gas Cartel'
The Kremlin denies that by maintaining the status quo it's keeping Iran crippled as a potential energy rival.
``Russia is not benefiting from the isolation of Iran,'' Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, said in an interview. ``We'll only welcome deeper involvement of Iran in the system of energy communication.''
In Tehran, Putin may try to formalize a cartel-like gas organization as a way of keeping Iran and other gas producers in check, Korchemkin said by phone from Malvern, Pennsylvania, where his consultancy is based.
At a summit in Doha, Qatar, in April, Russia led the drive for the world's biggest natural-gas producing countries to coordinate pricing along the lines of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
``Putin's ideal is Standard Oil,'' Korchemkin said, referring to the late 19th-century American monopoly. ``He thinks if he can cut gas production, he'll be able to manipulate the price, like OPEC does every other week.''
Peskov rejected the idea, saying Russia has proved itself to be a reliable energy supplier to Europe even during the Cold War.
``It's not an issue of cartel agreements,'' Peskov said. ``The demand for energy resources is growing much faster than supply. Being a responsible member of the international community, Russia is ready to secure its supply and ensure that demand is satisfied.''